I’ve just finished William Ruddiman’s Plows, Plagues, and Petroleum. It argues that there’s a much farther-reaching human-caused global warming effect than we could have guessed. He claims that the deforestation (begun 8000 years ago) and irrigation farming (begun 5000 years ago) practiced by humans many centuries in the past had a significant impact on carbon dioxide and methane concentrations, which in turn kept the earth from moving back towards its next cyclic ice age. (That’s the “Plows” part.) Any disruption in this gradual upswing of heat-trapping gases was caused by serious pandemics, which took the lives of so many humans that the amount of land under cultivation dropped, and those farmlands went back to forests. (That’s the “Plagues” part.) And since 1850, we’ve burned so much fossil fuel that the gradual rise in greenhouse gases caused by humans has been replaced by an incredibly fast upturn. (That’s the “Petroleum” part.)
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Living on Earth has a nice report on the changes in weather and climate in Northern Arizona. The American West is feeling climate change more (so far) than the American East, and this report walks through many of the pieces of evidence suggesting how Arizona is changing.
A crucial part of the piece is how pinyon pines are dying off, and juniper trees are replacing them.
I appreciate this particular report because it compares what is happening now with what happened after the last ice age. When climate warmed in the past, trees moved from place to place, and certain botanists and archaeologists can track where, in the Grand Canyon area, trees were alive at various points.
The report warns us, as well, about the future water battles in the American West. Fresh water is an extremely finite resource there, and with increased temperatures and continued growth in Phoenix and Tuscon, it can only get more difficult.
A new arrival at Harry Shearer’s Le Show is “News of the Warm”. Well, ok, not so new, but not as longstanding as “Apologies of the Week” or “Reading the Trades”, which have been around for years and years. Anyone who doesn’t know Shearer’s show — he is of “The Simpson’s” and “This is Spinal Tap” fame — Le Show is a mocking, knarly solo commentary-and-music show. Mostly sly commentary.
Recent highlights of “News of the Warm”:
Evangelicals are fighting over whether climate change is real or idiotic; and, Germany says that the unpublished part of the U.N. report claims that climate change effects are much worse than already stated. (listen to 43:48-46:22)
Sweden’s treeline is marching northwards; and, there’s now a 50% chance that ice sheets will eventually melt off landmasses Greenland and Antarctica, resulting in a 4-6 meter sea level rise. (listen to 43:10-45:20)
Shearer, alongside Colbert, Stewart, and occasionally Olberman, constitute the group which brings any sense of humor to this. Or to anything.
Insurance companies will be ahead of the curve on global warming. Another sign is that Lloyd’s of London is educating its own customer base about the changing risk profile of various investments. Lord Levene, chairman of Lloyd’s, says: “We had a conference last summer on the whole question of climate change, to try and bring it through. It’s no good just telling ourselves about it at Lloyds, we have to tell the whole of our insured customer base, which is worldwide.”
Why is this important? Insurance companies are asked to pay when damage occurs due to weather events. That’s the point of insurance. But, when a changing climate changes how weather patterns interact with business — well, insurers have to raise rates. Sometimes they raise them a lot. And sometimes, they simply leave the market altogether.
Here’s a possible future scenario: Insurance gets so expensive in certain parts of the America (say, coastal areas like Miami or New Orleans) that insurance companies either leave, end up bankrupt, or end up litigating themselves to death. Government is asked to take up the slack. And then… successive massive losses occur, with government expected to pay. The companies that leave thrive, and the public goes further into debt.
We’re possibly seeing only the earliest struggles over these kinds of topics now, as Allstate and State Farm struggle with Louisiana officials over homeowner insurance. As a recent Washington Post article discusses, Florida continues to build and invest in plenty of places which don’t make sense any more in light of climate and hurricane risk, and the State of Florida will be holding the bag if another big storm … um, when another big storm hits.
From where I write, near the Ohio River, there’s a consistent joke: “Hey, in the future, this is beachfront property.” Morbid joke, perhaps. But when insurance companies begin to take that idea seriously, you start totaling how many trillions of dollars of assets would be underwater if this were on the beach.